Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.008029 0.009046 0.010145 0.011421 0.012862 0.014441 0.016304
2026-01-25 0.006369 0.007757 0.009378 0.011416 0.013912 0.016875 0.020666
2026-02-01 0.005342 0.006863 0.008741 0.011234 0.014464 0.018520 0.024016
2026-02-08 0.004714 0.006327 0.008409 0.011299 0.015220 0.020376 0.027702
2026-02-15 0.004177 0.005821 0.008025 0.011205 0.015697 0.021844 0.030945
2026-02-22 0.003853 0.005555 0.007915 0.011442 0.016606 0.023933 0.035195
2026-03-01 0.003407 0.005062 0.007429 0.011078 0.016597 0.024688 0.037551
2026-03-08 0.003072 0.004694 0.007080 0.010866 0.016768 0.025686 0.040316
2026-03-15 0.002766 0.004336 0.006709 0.010578 0.016778 0.026416 0.042698
2026-03-22 0.002651 0.004262 0.006758 0.010937 0.017820 0.028815 0.047930
2026-03-29 0.002518 0.004145 0.006726 0.011156 0.018643 0.030918 0.052845
2026-04-05 0.002403 0.004046 0.006714 0.011400 0.019516 0.033161 0.058177
2026-04-12 0.002231 0.003839 0.006510 0.011312 0.019834 0.034515 0.062130
2026-04-19 0.002088 0.003672 0.006360 0.011303 0.020286 0.036136 0.066713
2026-04-26 0.001932 0.003466 0.006126 0.011124 0.020410 0.037177 0.070305
2026-05-03 0.001829 0.003347 0.006033 0.011187 0.020979 0.039058 0.075633
2026-05-10 0.001712 0.003193 0.005865 0.011095 0.021243 0.040387 0.080002
2026-05-17 0.001650 0.003137 0.005870 0.011329 0.022145 0.042990 0.087112
2026-05-24 0.001516 0.002931 0.005580 0.010969 0.021855 0.043252 0.089497
2026-05-31 0.001412 0.002777 0.005376 0.010760 0.021843 0.044055 0.093056
2026-06-07 0.001307 0.002614 0.005143 0.010474 0.021650 0.044473 0.095826
2026-06-14 0.001283 0.002610 0.005222 0.010830 0.022813 0.047767 0.105095
2026-06-21 0.001245 0.002574 0.005235 0.011047 0.023698 0.050545 0.113471